This might be the form of posts for a while. At the end of this semester, I hope to have 1 chapter, if not 2 chapters, drafted up.
(1) I am interested in the realism and reliability of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Population viability analysis (PVA) includes many kinds of models and methods, which typically purport to estimate and predict, given hypothetical conservation plans, either the probability distribution over the time to extinction or the cumulative probability that some population becomes extinct within some time interval. My specific interests are in (i) making explicit the objective of PVA and whether such an objective is realistic given practical constraints and limited resources, (ii) making explicit how PVA models do and realistically should represent causal knowledge and uncertainty that results from various kinds of stochasticity, (iii) analyzing the reliability of PVA methods for causal inference and the propagation of uncertainty through time, and (iv) analyzing the reliability of PVA algorithms for designing or recommending conservation plans. In my dissertation work, I plan to work on this set of issues. (2) At a much more abstract level, I am interested in theory structure, and, in particular, the algorithmic structure one finds in conservation biology (and, perhaps, other scientists such as economics). Such structure does not immediately appear equivalent to the proof-theoretic or model structure philosophers have typically payed attention to. Finally, I am also interested in (3) environmental philosophy and (4) environmental law. In the interest of scope, however, topics (2-4) will most likely have to be relegated to post-dissertation work.
