Beginnings

I have the beginnings of a first chapter. If you want to have a look, email me!

Update of Research Statement

This isn't what I promised in the last post, but it's an update of something!

First, I am interested in the reliability of risk assessment methods in dealing with uncertainty. Specifically, I am focused on the reliability of such methods in population viability analysis. "Population viability analysis" is a term that includes many kinds of risk assessment methods, which typically purport to measure either the probability distribution over the time to (quasi-)extinction or the cumulative probability that some population becomes (quasi-)extinct within some time frame. Currently, Bayesian frameworks for population viability analysis are on the rise, and I am interested in the reliability of such systematic approaches to population viability analysis, Bayesian or otherwise. I am also interested in a logically prior question to the question about the reliability of such methods: what is the proper "target" of conservation, and hence, population viability analysis? Second, and at a much more abstract level, I am interested in theory structure, and, in particular, the inferentialist or algorithmic structure one finds in, for example, conservation biology. In my dissertation work, I plan to work on these two sets of problems. Finally, I am also interested in decision making under uncertainty and looking at theory structure in other sciences such as, say, economics. In the interest of scope, however, such topics will most likely have to be relegated to post-dissertation work.

Plan of Attack

I'll probably be able to update this blog with another lengthy post about where my dissertation research is headed in a couple of weeks. Until then, here's a list of books I plan on reading, and a list of courses I plan on taking in the near future. In other words, my plan of attack over the next year or so.

Courses List
Spring 2012 Courses
Probability
Statistical Modeling
Research/Independent Study

Fall 2012 Courses
Stochastic Processes in Biology
Dynamic Modeling in Biology
Prospectus
Complex Adaptive Systems?

Spring 2013 Courses
Bayesian Modeling in the Life Sciences
Computability and Incompleteness OR Applied Multivariate Analysis
Research

Reading List (Recommendations Helpful!)
Currently Reading
Idea of Biodiversity (Takacs)
Data Analysis with Regression (Gelman)
Computability (Cutland)
Logic of Reliable Inquiry (Kelly)
Articulating Reasons (Brandom)
Making it Explicit (Brandom)

Future Reading
Introduction to Stochastic Processes (Allen)
Bayesian Choice (Robert)
Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis (Burger)
Bayesian Data Analysis (Gelman et al)
Probability Theory (Jaynes)
Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology (Burgman et al)
Matrix Population Models (Caswell)
Likelihood (Edwards)
Model Selection and Multimodel Inference (Burnham & Anderson)
Ecological Detective (Hilborn & Mangel)
Nature of Scientific Evidence (Taper & Lele)
Statistical Decision Functions (Wald)
Games and Information (Rasmusen)
Evolution of the Social Contract (Skyrms)
Enterprise of Knowledge (Levi)
Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography (Hubbell)
Scientific Image (van Fraassen)
Dappled World (Cartwright)
Method in Ecology (Shrader-Frechette)
Unsimple Truths (Mitchell)
Stochastic Population Dynamics in Ecology and Conservation (Lande et al)
Mathematical Modeling in Biology (Edelstein-Keshet)
Complexity (Mitchel)
Scientific Reasoning (Howson & Urbach)
Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations (Mulaik)
Structural Equations with Latent Variables (Bollen)